1. Where did RTM come from?
RTM was developed in 2009 by Joel Caplan and Leslie Kennedy to leverage data from various sources (with geography as the "common denominator") and use readily accessible methods that other people could replicate. To make it more accessible for people with limited GIS and statistical abilities, Rutgers University developed the RTMDx Utility in 2013, a FREE app that automates RTM.
2. What kind of data is needed for RTM and where does the data come from?
The RTM process begins by testing a variety of factors thought to be geographically related to outcomes (e.g. crime incidents). Valid factors are selected and then weighted to produce a final model that basically 'paints a picture' of places where crime is statistically most likely to occur. Crime and risk factor datasets are particular to the study settings, but include things such as locations of bars, schools, parks, etc. Data often comes from open sources or public administrative records.
3. What level of detail does RTM have about a place's geography?
Analysis is conducted at the micro-level (e.g., block or half-a-block units of analysis). This can be set by the user.
4. Why is RTM free of charge?
Because it's consistent with the original principles of RTM's development; that is, to leverage data from various sources, have accessible methods, and use readily available off-the-shelf software to study the spatial dynamics of crime. Accessibility was key! Kennedy and Caplan published dozens of online resources which analysts continue to download for free. And they advocate the use of open-source tools to perform statistical tests. Many police agencies are now using RTM on a regular basis, but want to do so faster or with greater efficiency. Other agencies want to use RTM, but don't have GIS software or the time to invest in training. The RTMDx Utility software is available for free because RTM is a clinically proven technique for spatial crime analysis that we simply agreed should be free and readily accessible to researchers and practitioners who can use it for public good.
5. How is RTM being used around the world; are there any anecdotes/success stories you could share?
RTM is being considered for topics other than crime, such as urban planning, injury prevention, public health, traffic accidents, border security, pollution, or maritime piracy. Researchers and practitioners in Australia, Canada, France, Italy and elsewhere are using RTM for research and crime analysis. Some examples are linked to from here. In Canada it is being used by municipalities and police departments, and even border security (i.e., Royal Canadian Mounted Police) with much success (according to their presentations to us). For example, see this.
6. Why is RTM used by people outside of the criminal justice field?
RTM is being used by practitioners across many disciplines is because it was originally developed to solve a problem that we all equally face: That is, how to leverage data and insights from various sources, using readily accessible methods. Many people have expended considerable effort, over many decades, in identifying links between certain factors and particular crime outcomes. Drs. Kennedy and Caplan wanted to simultaneously apply all of these empirical findings to practice. RTM was developed as a framework to make this integration happen. They synthesized evidence-based insights and disparate data sources by using geography as the common denominator. This is applicable to many fields of study and professional practice.
7. What kind of areas/topographical features lend themselves to criminal activity?
This is not an easy question to answer because behavior settings for illegal activity differ across crime types and settings. Some features of the landscape include things such as parks, schools, bars, restaurants, lighting, drug areas, etc. But RTM analyzes the spatial influence of these features and how they interact to create especially high risks for crime at micro-level places.
8. What impact might RTM have on police community relations, is there a danger that it might demonize certain neighborhoods and becomes a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy?
Likely the opposite. Place-based risk assessment for crime makes intuitive sense: victims and offenders know they take risks and that these risks increase in certain locations; police consider risks in doing their jobs on a daily basis; and they are often deployed to geographies to combat crime and manage other real or perceived threats. RTM allows police and other stakeholders to focus on places, not people. Also, our researcher-practitioner collaborations, using RTM, have led to new approaches for measuring police productivity without a heavy reliance on traditional law enforcement actions such as stops, arrests or citations. But rather, on other activities that have a direct and substantial effect on crime prevention through risk mitigation, and without a primary focus on people which could jeopardize public perceptions and community relations. A recent law review article explains how methods such as RTM can "help courts and police departments narrowly define 'high-crime areas'. Establishing narrowly defined high-crime areas based on quantitative data," the article explained, "will enable the courts to play an essential role in restoring Fourth Amendment protections to people living in low-income minority neighborhoods." RTM helps to tighten the required nexus between direct observation of suspicious conduct and an area’s propensity for crime.
9. Comparisons will be made with Minority Report, any thoughts on this?
Predicting crime is a tall order. RTM cannot predict specific events by particular offenders at certain moments in time. But, it can identify the most vulnerable areas in a jurisdiction, which allows you to predict with a certain level of confidence, the most likely places where crimes will emerge—even if they haven’t occurred there already. RTM is not "predictive" analysis; here's why.
10. Why are environmental factors better indicators of crime?
RTM permits police and other stakeholders to identify, with a certain level of confidence, the most likely places where crimes will emerge—even if it hasn’t occurred there already. Utilizing environmental factors has many other benefits. One of which is that it enables intervention activities to focus on places, not just people located at certain places. Another is that RTM is a sustainable technique because past crime data are not needed to make valid forecasts. Police use RTM to be problem-oriented and proactive to prevent new crimes without concern that a high success rate (and no new data) will hamper their ability to make new forecasts.
11. Where can I get the RTMDx Utility?
You can learn more about the software and request a free license here: http://www.rutgerscps.org/software.
12. What are the system requirements for using the RTMDx Utility?
RTMDx will run best on a PC (or Intel-based Mac with Boot Camp) with a 64-bit processor, 2 or more CPU cores, and Microsoft Windows installed. It is a Windows-only application. 16GB or more memory is recommended. RTMDx requires approximately 3.0MB of space on your computer. An internet connection is required for installation.
RTM was developed in 2009 by Joel Caplan and Leslie Kennedy to leverage data from various sources (with geography as the "common denominator") and use readily accessible methods that other people could replicate. To make it more accessible for people with limited GIS and statistical abilities, Rutgers University developed the RTMDx Utility in 2013, a FREE app that automates RTM.
2. What kind of data is needed for RTM and where does the data come from?
The RTM process begins by testing a variety of factors thought to be geographically related to outcomes (e.g. crime incidents). Valid factors are selected and then weighted to produce a final model that basically 'paints a picture' of places where crime is statistically most likely to occur. Crime and risk factor datasets are particular to the study settings, but include things such as locations of bars, schools, parks, etc. Data often comes from open sources or public administrative records.
3. What level of detail does RTM have about a place's geography?
Analysis is conducted at the micro-level (e.g., block or half-a-block units of analysis). This can be set by the user.
4. Why is RTM free of charge?
Because it's consistent with the original principles of RTM's development; that is, to leverage data from various sources, have accessible methods, and use readily available off-the-shelf software to study the spatial dynamics of crime. Accessibility was key! Kennedy and Caplan published dozens of online resources which analysts continue to download for free. And they advocate the use of open-source tools to perform statistical tests. Many police agencies are now using RTM on a regular basis, but want to do so faster or with greater efficiency. Other agencies want to use RTM, but don't have GIS software or the time to invest in training. The RTMDx Utility software is available for free because RTM is a clinically proven technique for spatial crime analysis that we simply agreed should be free and readily accessible to researchers and practitioners who can use it for public good.
5. How is RTM being used around the world; are there any anecdotes/success stories you could share?
RTM is being considered for topics other than crime, such as urban planning, injury prevention, public health, traffic accidents, border security, pollution, or maritime piracy. Researchers and practitioners in Australia, Canada, France, Italy and elsewhere are using RTM for research and crime analysis. Some examples are linked to from here. In Canada it is being used by municipalities and police departments, and even border security (i.e., Royal Canadian Mounted Police) with much success (according to their presentations to us). For example, see this.
6. Why is RTM used by people outside of the criminal justice field?
RTM is being used by practitioners across many disciplines is because it was originally developed to solve a problem that we all equally face: That is, how to leverage data and insights from various sources, using readily accessible methods. Many people have expended considerable effort, over many decades, in identifying links between certain factors and particular crime outcomes. Drs. Kennedy and Caplan wanted to simultaneously apply all of these empirical findings to practice. RTM was developed as a framework to make this integration happen. They synthesized evidence-based insights and disparate data sources by using geography as the common denominator. This is applicable to many fields of study and professional practice.
7. What kind of areas/topographical features lend themselves to criminal activity?
This is not an easy question to answer because behavior settings for illegal activity differ across crime types and settings. Some features of the landscape include things such as parks, schools, bars, restaurants, lighting, drug areas, etc. But RTM analyzes the spatial influence of these features and how they interact to create especially high risks for crime at micro-level places.
8. What impact might RTM have on police community relations, is there a danger that it might demonize certain neighborhoods and becomes a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy?
Likely the opposite. Place-based risk assessment for crime makes intuitive sense: victims and offenders know they take risks and that these risks increase in certain locations; police consider risks in doing their jobs on a daily basis; and they are often deployed to geographies to combat crime and manage other real or perceived threats. RTM allows police and other stakeholders to focus on places, not people. Also, our researcher-practitioner collaborations, using RTM, have led to new approaches for measuring police productivity without a heavy reliance on traditional law enforcement actions such as stops, arrests or citations. But rather, on other activities that have a direct and substantial effect on crime prevention through risk mitigation, and without a primary focus on people which could jeopardize public perceptions and community relations. A recent law review article explains how methods such as RTM can "help courts and police departments narrowly define 'high-crime areas'. Establishing narrowly defined high-crime areas based on quantitative data," the article explained, "will enable the courts to play an essential role in restoring Fourth Amendment protections to people living in low-income minority neighborhoods." RTM helps to tighten the required nexus between direct observation of suspicious conduct and an area’s propensity for crime.
9. Comparisons will be made with Minority Report, any thoughts on this?
Predicting crime is a tall order. RTM cannot predict specific events by particular offenders at certain moments in time. But, it can identify the most vulnerable areas in a jurisdiction, which allows you to predict with a certain level of confidence, the most likely places where crimes will emerge—even if they haven’t occurred there already. RTM is not "predictive" analysis; here's why.
10. Why are environmental factors better indicators of crime?
RTM permits police and other stakeholders to identify, with a certain level of confidence, the most likely places where crimes will emerge—even if it hasn’t occurred there already. Utilizing environmental factors has many other benefits. One of which is that it enables intervention activities to focus on places, not just people located at certain places. Another is that RTM is a sustainable technique because past crime data are not needed to make valid forecasts. Police use RTM to be problem-oriented and proactive to prevent new crimes without concern that a high success rate (and no new data) will hamper their ability to make new forecasts.
11. Where can I get the RTMDx Utility?
You can learn more about the software and request a free license here: http://www.rutgerscps.org/software.
12. What are the system requirements for using the RTMDx Utility?
RTMDx will run best on a PC (or Intel-based Mac with Boot Camp) with a 64-bit processor, 2 or more CPU cores, and Microsoft Windows installed. It is a Windows-only application. 16GB or more memory is recommended. RTMDx requires approximately 3.0MB of space on your computer. An internet connection is required for installation.